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Looking ahead in PFO with excitement

Thod-Theodum
Looking ahead in PFO with excitement

The two largest alliances in this game currently squabble with each other, the third largest alliance 'wins' by staying out of it. But what seems lost is sometimes the deep underlying structure of this game.

Over the next half year we will enter a completely new phase of this game. Tier 3 items are arriving and we are able to build our own buildings in settlements. This will be a time when we will see a lot of changes gradually happen to differentiate the settlements and new winners and losers will appear - not just because there is now holding warfare.

The key to understand how deep this change goes is to have a better understanding of rare resources, common resources in high demand and the future economy of +4/+5 refined resources. I think GW has done here a really nice job and it will take time for players to appreciate this.

So let me explain as a settlement leader why the next month are so fundamental. I will start with Theodum's Folly - his plan to build a level 20 library. What is actually involved in building such a building - and what consequences will it have that ripple down.

First you need a recipe - that is the simple part. We managed to get one via trade. The large settlements will have their most important recipes - but as I said - this is only the start.
Building anything up to +3 aka level 16 is simple. You gather the resources, you refine, you build.

At +4 it becomes interesting. Now you need +4 refined materials. There is no recipe to make them. For example our library needs 8 builders blessing which each needs 5 weak luminous extracts. That is 160 Foxfire or Dreamglow Mushrooms for a +3.

A dedicated gatherer can collect them in a day - cant he? Yes and no. We luckily have Dreamglow Mushrooms as the only T1 forester resource in the crop lands next to us. But there is an issue. The rating of the hexes (total number of raw materials at 100%) for the Dreamglow Mushrooms is 80.

We would completely strip mine the hex if we don't
A) spread it over multiple hexes
B) spread it over multiple days

Now I said +3 is simple - the fun starts at +4. Assuming a refiner skill 150 (level 13 with +20 from race, armour, feature) you need 11 times that much. So we are talking approx 1800 weak luminous raw materials needed.

This is still doable. I'm collecting them from hexes were there are lots, I buy them cheap on 2  auction houses whenever they come up. Oh - and I'm doing it for a few weeks now. I can proudly say that I have 21 out of 40 weak luminous +4 extracts needed safely in my vaults. And a few hundred Dreamglow Mushrooms still in storage.

People might have heard me in general yesterday playing the 'PFO slot machine' - a ticket is 12 weak luminous, 5 ordered essence. It takes 30 seconds with my current skill to make 3 extracts with approximate an 8% chance for a +4. Yes - my apothecary isn't as good as he should be.

And now we go to +5. It takes on average 200 attempts with a refiner 150 to get a single +3. We are now talking an estimated 32000 Foxfire / Dreamglow Mushrooms needed. This means I'm starting to distort and severely affect the market in the River Kingdoms.

So who cares - Emerald Lodge is stupid anyhow to want to build a +5 library. Well - think again - builders blessings are also needed in the following buildings:

Keep 18
Wood shop 5
Jeweller 5
Library 8
Public Garden 3
Guard Post 3
Silo 3
Warehouse 3
Guillotine 3
Heroic Statue 3
Philosopher Statue 3
Religious Statue 3
Well Structure 3

Now weak luminous could become a hot, hot property. Masses of gatherers will swarm out to get them, prices will spiral upwards after I hit the publish button.

No - enough doom and gloom lately. This won't happen. Not enough gatherer out there. And there will be other resources equally or even more in demand. But it certainly will lead to a new way to play.

Certain hexes that deliver valued raw materials will be burned down. I managed solo to harvest half of all resources in several very good hexes (good = I only gathered what I needed for our library with the exemption of resonant essence - which Stache wants lots of). But less scrupulous gathers might just strip a hex - especially if it isn't in their own area.

I've already seen some hexes stripped of scavenger nodes in the south west crop lands. Also craters seem to get strip mined of miner nodes.

This leads to another need for +4/+5 refined materials - in this case T2. I wasn't aware until a last week that I actually need to craft an uncommon +4 item to reach rank 15 as crafter. And to reach rank 16 it needs to be a +5 item.

We are approaching the state where players have enough XP to reach rank 15 now. At first it will be a trickle - and these dedicated crafters are part of larger settlements and likely will be provided with their needs for +4 items.

Unless of course you mainly refined +2 because it was cheaper and you didn't plan ahead. Then you might have to scrabble to get what you need - or you need to trade.

I'm collecting +4/+5 refined materials for trade. I only saw some once on an AH (and bought them). It will be interesting to see with buy orders what the prices are for these.

Oh and if you want to build a wood shop, jewellery or keep at +3 - I'm expecting to have loads of +3 builders blessing spare. Happy to make a trade. I likely even will have +4 spare in a few weeks.

Yes - that is the other part. Look ahead early to find a market for you spare +3. I'm considering to tell my crafters/refiners to make +2 items in the future from a mix of +3 and +1. It costs a little bit more raw materials - but in the long run it is more economic. Surely we will see some cheap +3 dumped on the market soon enough from people that haven't planned ahead long enough and need +4/5 in a rush.

Oh - and it will also be interesting to see how the 'economic PvP' of Brighthaven and Golgotha shapes up. Brighthaven has the large advantage to have gone industrial from the very start. My resources tell me Cheatle is hoarding +4/+5 from the very beginning of the game.

This will compete with the capitalistic model of Stache/Coach/Tyncale. The question here is - did these three hoard their +4/+5 drops for times to come when they are truly valuable or did they see them as cheap ways to save resources and rue having used them very soon.

And what about the HRC? I don't know what they are doing. Have they used the peace in their area to quietly amass material or did they inadvertently help the capitalistic model by selling raw materials.

2Stache - I have 105 Ochre Crystals +3 ready for you. According to my calculation it is 900 copper for 7 for a total of 1.35 gp. I will deliver them to KB. If you wondered why I offered them below raw material cost? I started to become a PFO slot machine junkie. I had to raise the stakes from cheap Weak Luminous to Ochre crystals.

It didn't go well smile Only 2 drops total for a lot of running around to get all the raw materials in a single place. I expected 5 to 6 drops. On the bright side - I got a single +5. So only 20% of +4 I expected (and any gambler always hopes he beats the odds) but approx three times as much +5 as expected - or the other way round - I would have needed to make three times as many Ochre Crystals to expect a single +5.

Now he question will be - will the value of this single +5 outweigh the loss that I otherwise did by not simply selling you raw materials.

PS: Emerald Lodge is buying weak luminous raw material. 5 cp each. My coffers are not as deep as Stache. But I should be able to afford up to 2000. Just place them on the AH in TK, KB or Hammerfall and I will buy them.
There is also a chance to trade them in to be in the top of the queue for future builders blessings +3 and +4.
Thod/Theodum are the OOC/IC leaders of the Emerald Lodge - a neutral settlement in the center of the mal that tries to the first to explore the Emerald Spire - should that part of the game ever become available. We have a strong in game and out of game relationship with the Pathfinder Society.
We welcome both hard core players as well as casual players with or without tabletop experience. We have a strong group in Europe and are slowly expanding into the US. We are predominately PvE as our neutral political stance means that we tend to use PvP only in self-defence. We are not anti-PVP - but expect limited PvP opportunity with us.
Caldeathe Baequiannia
Your math for getting enough gathered items is based on the current degradation levels in hexes. By the time people start needing level 20 buildings, if the population of the server isn't high enough to restore the resource levels to their original plan, the game will have already failed. If it is high enough, there will be many times as many gatherers and hexes will drop several hundred of each resource before degrading.
To reach me, email d20rpg@gmail.com
Tyncale
You're a real trooper, Thod. I wish I had your faith.
Regalo Harnoncourt, Leader of the River Kingdoms Trading Company, High Council of Callambea.
This is the character that I am playing almost 100% of the time. (Tyncale is my Sage/Mage)
Rynnik
What exactly happens with the NON critted mats in your math? That doesn't sounds like scarcity and healthy economic exchange to me - it sounds like over time everything except +5 refines will flood the market and be worthless.
Not a member, representative, or supporter of Brighthaven Alliance.
Thod-Theodum
@Cal
I'm fully aware that GW will adapt numbers if there are more players. To me it seems they found a pretty good balance right now. But this was also in relation to the second thread I made - such a balance would be much harder to achieve if you have a reboot.
And once buildings are in the current balance will be tested.

@Tyncale
There are moments I'm also caught up in the doom and gloom. But then I wonder why I spend hours glued to the screen playing or participating on these boards. So there is something in the game that can fascinate. So I try to give a voice to this aspect here to counter some deliberate doom mongers.
There are some difficulties in the game - at the same stage to me it doesn't look as doomed as being on the Titanic right now. Maybe these words will haunt me - but lets play on and entertain the masses for a little bit longer.

@Rynnik
Indeed the non-critted mats are the key. There are several options here

a) You just run a normal economy. In this case +3 items are refined as needed and the +4/+5 will accumulate - albeit over a very long time frame. We are talking months or even years here to build up a +5 building
b) You produce surplus +3 materials and look for a market. Stache was interested in 2000 resonant essences. Looking at refining I figured out he likely wanted to produce T2 crystals in large quantities - so I offered to sell him +3 Ochre crystals instead of my 600 resonant essences that I used to produce them (plus 60 gold ore, 225 lesser consonant and 150 greater consonant). So Stache created a market for me. I'm also trying to create a market for builders blessing by stepping in early. I have a plan to do the same for staff uniforms +3. I can't tell yet if it will work or not. Ask again in 8 weeks. Pine hafts+3, Iron Ingots+3 and Hemp rope+3 are easy as there is a market for +3 holdings and outposts that will take up these refined materials.
c) You distort the +3 market by flooding it with lots of unused +3 materials that you don't need

I'm trying to do a) and b) - but I'm sure some players / settlements plan less well in advance and end up with a certain amount of c) as a result. So how much +3 will flood the market depends how desperately some settlements want their +4/+5 buildings or +4/+5 achievements and how badly they have planned ahead.

I calculated that the library +5 costs 179.3K in resources. At 5 copper each this will cost EL a total of 89.65 gold coins - nearly enough to become a member of the platinum club. This is an amount that EL has trouble to afford. And it goes up if the needed T1 resources cost us > 5 copper each.

So to afford this we try:
a) buy cheaper when there are opportunities
b) gather ourselves as much as possible
c) do it slowly to avoid strip mining and costs for buying materials to spiral upwards
d) recoup as much as we can by finding use of the 'surplus +3' materials. If a lot of apprentice ice +3 suddenly appears then you know why

What I wanted to describe is that if something like EL building a +5 library has possible impacts on all other settlements because it changes the economies then what will happen if several large settlements (Golgotha, Phaeros, Brighthaven, Ozems Vigil, Talonguard) all try to build something larger - like a keep - at a +4 or +5 level.

This will have a much deeper impact to the game as the current burning of a few holdings outside Phaeros and Sylva. Maybe not emotionally - but economically it will be at least an order or two orders more important. And yes - it also highlights a imbalance with current bulk good productions.
There are potential bulk good sinks build into the game in form of +4 and +5 buildings - but they will take months or even years to be build. But that is best discussed in a different thread - maybe in crowdforging. Didn't get the time yet to write down my musings about that part.
Thod/Theodum are the OOC/IC leaders of the Emerald Lodge - a neutral settlement in the center of the mal that tries to the first to explore the Emerald Spire - should that part of the game ever become available. We have a strong in game and out of game relationship with the Pathfinder Society.
We welcome both hard core players as well as casual players with or without tabletop experience. We have a strong group in Europe and are slowly expanding into the US. We are predominately PvE as our neutral political stance means that we tend to use PvP only in self-defence. We are not anti-PVP - but expect limited PvP opportunity with us.
 
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