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Crafting Queue

Duffy Swiftshadow
How do you squeeze out a new T2 crafting player by the way? Is the armor they make somehow less valuable than the exact same one the higher level guy made (technically slight profit margin differences but not talking huge numbers)? Can they just not compete in the market at all for some reason? Sure the theoretical guy with two queues can make more armor and thus more money, but to kick someone out of the market he would need to crash the pricing, in which case he's temporarily impairing himself for a possible short term hike afterwards? Something that will always be part of the economy anyways. Something he could do just as easily without a dual queue.

Just to throw some anecdotal evidence on the pile: we have 4 T2 armorsmiths that we try to keep going full time and we're barely making progress against the combination of churn and sales. For our Tailor crafting a T3 robe isn't even technically worth it monetarily, but we throw them in as a reprieve for the gatherers (and our wizards realllly like them). The biggest holdup right now is resource gathering, not queues, but that's a side effect of a lot less active gatherers.
Decius
There are ~8 hexes next to a settlement bank that have >100 true coal. All of them have large percentages of useless stuff, mostly brimstone. Any further than a hex away from a bank and you have to drag a mule with you while gathering, which is a PITA and slows you down.
Thod-Theodum
@Duffy
Lets analyse the Priest Chainmail and assume a +3.

We are talking 1 Coarse Padding +3 and 45 - x Dwarven Steel Wire +3 and x Dwarven Steel Wire +2

Now we take Jazz Strongblade - our dedicated crafter vs a new T2 crafter level 10 with a skill of 120.

Jazz crafts 1.7 times as fast as the new level 10 crafter who just reached the level to craft (I gave a +20 bonus / racial, armour, feats - which could be higher/lower).

Now we go to raw materials needed. The new crafter crafts T2 at +0.073 which means x = 4. Jazz crafts T2 at +0.451 which means x = 30. In other words - the new crafter can substitute 4 +3 wire for 4 +2 wire. Jazz does substitute 30 +3 wire with 30 +2 wire.

What does this mean for raw materials needed?

The new T2 crafter needs 67.1 lodestone and 131.7 iron/coal
Jazz needs 48.6 lodestone and 98.6 iron/coal

This is 18.5 extra lodestone and 33 extra iron/coal each to craft the armour.

My spreadsheet - assuming 15 for coal, 12 for iron, 20 for lodestone calculates a raw material cost as

Jazz: 40.49 sp
New Crafter: 53.49 sp

Current selling price in EL: 59.99 sp

This makes triple the profit for Jazz - add in that she also crafts 1.7 times faster and she has a 5 fold profit margin compared to the new crafter. All she needs to do to keep that new crafter off her AH is to lower the price to 49.99 until that crafter goes away and she won the economic PvP.

Guess what - Jazz has no problem to push out a new crafter already. She has the advantage to be longer around = has the capital to buy low whenever some raw materials are available.

Now give her 2 queues as she can craft twice as fast / no longer has to worry about the time it takes for her T3 armour as she can have one queue with T2 and the other with T3.

Not added in the equation is that Jazz gets her Dwarven Steel Wire from Durur - a 210+ refiner who adds to the profit margin bu producing +4 and +5 wire. Assuming the new crafter has access to a smelter 140 the difference is 10.6% + drops and 0.59% ++ drops vs 5% + drops and 0.27% ++ drops for the new crafter.

Actually a lot of my profit is not in the crafting part but in the drops of +4/+5 refined materials.
Thod/Theodum are the OOC/IC leaders of the Emerald Lodge - a neutral settlement in the center of the mal that tries to the first to explore the Emerald Spire - should that part of the game ever become available. We have a strong in game and out of game relationship with the Pathfinder Society.
We welcome both hard core players as well as casual players with or without tabletop experience. We have a strong group in Europe and are slowly expanding into the US. We are predominately PvE as our neutral political stance means that we tend to use PvP only in self-defence. We are not anti-PVP - but expect limited PvP opportunity with us.
Thod-Theodum
Decius
There are ~8 hexes next to a settlement bank that have >100 true coal. All of them have large percentages of useless stuff, mostly brimstone. Any further than a hex away from a bank and you have to drag a mule with you while gathering, which is a PITA and slows you down.

Pioneer 10, Encumbrance Bonus 8, Strongback 3 - I can carry 200 coal without encumbrance. This means I can gather around 150 coal (125 high quality and 25 second quality) plus other stuff before I need to unload. I did hand on my Adamantine Chain Shirt to my son or it would be even more.

Use a base camp or a holding and you don't need a bank but can plant it closer.

I'm not saying that my numbers are average/sustainable - but they can be reached in peak.

Thod/Theodum are the OOC/IC leaders of the Emerald Lodge - a neutral settlement in the center of the mal that tries to the first to explore the Emerald Spire - should that part of the game ever become available. We have a strong in game and out of game relationship with the Pathfinder Society.
We welcome both hard core players as well as casual players with or without tabletop experience. We have a strong group in Europe and are slowly expanding into the US. We are predominately PvE as our neutral political stance means that we tend to use PvP only in self-defence. We are not anti-PVP - but expect limited PvP opportunity with us.
Duffy Swiftshadow
@Thod

Gotcha, that makes sense.

So all this seems to hinge on the following assumption:

With dual queues we will easily outstrip demand across the board and allow constant and easy market manipulation by higher level crafters.

So the possible economical outcomes are (regardless of dual queues):

Supply Heavy: If as the population grows the supply to demand ratio increases on the Supply side, then the economy will be hostile to new folks until they reach the same level as the active crafters that came before them.

Demand Heavy: If the ratio increases on the side of Demand as the population grows then the market will struggle to meet demand and lower level crafters will be able to compete with higher level crafters albeit with smaller profit margins.

Equilibrium: The market teeters somewhere around the middle based on the current activities going on in the game and will swing one way or the other often enough to allow low level crafter competition, but still favors the high level crafters as they can control the market 50% of the time but still benefit from the Demand heavy times.

We're all just guessing one way or another on which outcome will happen. So dual queues aside if the economy gets into a perpetual over supply state, what is the best way for it to be mechanically resolved? Should it be?
Thod-Theodum
@Duffy

Right now there are several ways how the economy balances out itself.

Supply Heavy: This doesn't necessarily apply to everything. A level 16 armoursmith can churn out Pot Steel Plates faster then there is demand. But he might not care/be able as his queue is booked up 2 month to create Adamantine Chain Shirts and he is the only one in the settlement doing it. This means other lower level crafters are forced to fill the gap - or you wait.
I doubt there will be oversupply for crafted items that need level 16+ and/or T3 recipes.

Demand Heavy: If there is a profit to be made, then new crafters will fill the need. Also keep in mind that you can have fighter/crafters. Our resident level 15 armoursmith is actually a fighter who trained up armoursmith for the Str score. More fighters will dip into a second career.

Equilibrium: You will never find perfect equilibrium - actually you don't want it. There must be friction because something is more abundant in A as in B.

And then there is the raw material side to it. I just calculated that if the current gathering potential that is realistic for silk (yep - I'm currently scouting out silk as I need it) is around 200 silk / day then this translates into 8 T3 robes potential / day. This would keep 120 crafters busy - (or half that much with double queue) but once this threshold is reached there will be scarcicity of a new kind.
Aoenien League would be in a great position if this happens to silk.
Expect strip mining / wars if that happens and if key raw materials truly become rare enough that they become the bottleneck.

Off course all of this needs NewCorp and more players. With less players and dependencies on a single crafter a second queue indeed seems attractive - but it could be a short term fix that will have bad repercussions later. And it will be more difficult to take it away again as to add it.
Thod/Theodum are the OOC/IC leaders of the Emerald Lodge - a neutral settlement in the center of the mal that tries to the first to explore the Emerald Spire - should that part of the game ever become available. We have a strong in game and out of game relationship with the Pathfinder Society.
We welcome both hard core players as well as casual players with or without tabletop experience. We have a strong group in Europe and are slowly expanding into the US. We are predominately PvE as our neutral political stance means that we tend to use PvP only in self-defence. We are not anti-PVP - but expect limited PvP opportunity with us.
Duffy Swiftshadow
Thod-Theodum
Supply Heavy: This doesn't necessarily apply to everything. A level 16 armoursmith can churn out Pot Steel Plates faster then there is demand. But he might not care/be able as his queue is booked up 2 month to create Adamantine Chain Shirts and he is the only one in the settlement doing it. This means other lower level crafters are forced to fill the gap - or you wait.
I doubt there will be oversupply for crafted items that need level 16+ and/or T3 recipes.

In Supply Heavy the all that matters is that there are enough high level crafters to trivially cover demand and thus control any particular crafting area. Where they make their profit is not relevant, what is relevant is that in any particular market it is trivial for them to edge out lower skilled crafters consistently as their are essentially 'too' many high level crafters and too much raw material for them to use.

That's the implied nightmare scenario with dual queues, but it is just as possible without them. So if that happens how should it be adjusted? You imply that resource rarity is part of the answer and I agree, but then why does the double queue matter if it can happen and be controlled either way?

I agree with the rest of your reply.
Thod-Theodum
@Duffy
I agree - it is possible without double queues to control the market - but it is a lot harder as you need to anticipate and stockpile in advance if your crafter is out of commission for 3 weeks in a row.
Thod/Theodum are the OOC/IC leaders of the Emerald Lodge - a neutral settlement in the center of the mal that tries to the first to explore the Emerald Spire - should that part of the game ever become available. We have a strong in game and out of game relationship with the Pathfinder Society.
We welcome both hard core players as well as casual players with or without tabletop experience. We have a strong group in Europe and are slowly expanding into the US. We are predominately PvE as our neutral political stance means that we tend to use PvP only in self-defence. We are not anti-PVP - but expect limited PvP opportunity with us.
Decius
If the top refiners cut out the margin of the mid refiners, and the top crafters cut out the margin of the mid crafters, nobody makes much coin at all in the midrange; the midrange characters start edging out the new characters, and/or some of the top characters move on to compete at the top end.
Edam
The economy does not seem homogenous. We are not currently seeing this oversupply situation in the major crafts. Our armorsmiths, artificers, iconographers and Tailors are all busy. Admittedly refiners seem unbalanced we can keep up with several crafters with one refiner working half a day a week and due to game mechanics some crafts are not in demand - nobogy wants bows. We actually had to buy a couple of new characters recently because some stuff (particularly higher level implements robes and armor) seemed to be almost unavailable.
 
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