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NewCorp Update

Nihimon
Decius
Traditional techniques work just as well on software as they do on construction projects…

When's the last time some random guy on a construction project developed an entirely novel way to frame a house? When's the last time some random guy in an office developed an entirely novel framework for solving some software problem? Or - probably more relevant - when's the last time that random developer tried to develop an entirely novel framework and discovered halfway through that it was untenable? Estimates for the time to develop software are notoriously wrong because it's not a well-defined field where everyone already pretty much knows "this is how you build an X" and "that is how you build a Y".

Software isn't magic, but it's practically the same thing because there really aren't limitations on how you can do things. It cannot be effectively compared to construction. If it really could, you'd probably expect the average developer to make about as much as the average construction worker.

[EDIT] That's just a rant about software. I don't mean to comment one way or another on your statements about NewCorp or PFO with respect to estimating their timelines for things like public announcements.
Nihimon murmurs in sheer ecstasy as the magic courses through his veins
Decius
Nihimon
Decius
Traditional techniques work just as well on software as they do on construction projects…

When's the last time some random guy on a construction project developed an entirely novel way to frame a house? When's the last time some random guy in an office developed an entirely novel framework for solving some software problem? Or - probably more relevant - when's the last time that random developer tried to develop an entirely novel framework and discovered halfway through that it was untenable? Estimates for the time to develop software are notoriously wrong because it's not a well-defined field where everyone already pretty much knows "this is how you build an X" and "that is how you build a Y".

Software isn't magic, but it's practically the same thing because there really aren't limitations on how you can do things. It cannot be effectively compared to construction. If it really could, you'd probably expect the average developer to make about as much as the average construction worker.

[EDIT] That's just a rant about software. I don't mean to comment one way or another on your statements about NewCorp or PFO with respect to estimating their timelines for things like public announcements.
How
Many entirely novel frameworks does an average developer on a typical project create per week? If the proper time estimate is "I don't know IF that can be done", than maybe there's a need for a new framework. If the person designing a new framework has enough experience to be able to say "it typically takes two days to nail down a design, three days to implement it, then a day to test, a day to refine the design, a day for the requirements to change, and two more days to fix the implementation, and something always goes wrong and I lose a day, so my estimate is 12 days, and then we can start estimating the programming time using a new framework.", then even an entirely novel framework can be estimated with as much accuracy as a construction project.

The place where software development seems to fail to be predictable is that goals are harder to decompose and distribute to multiple people, and the labor is mostly nonfungible.
Duffy Swiftshadow
That last part is actually not that hard, it's really the estimation that's the problem because it's an estimate in the truest description of the word: an educated guess (emphasis on the guess). Even something we know can probably be done doesn't mean it's gonna be done exactly the same or even that close to previous work or that our quick napkin thought is a viable path to it. It's not usually estimation in the sense of 'I've built 6 foot tall doors before and I know 10 doors will take me 10X, give or take a few random minor problems' it's more like 'I've built doors before I bet I could build a portcullis and draw bridge, might take a bit longer tho' and they say 'well someone must have done that before', unfortunately the best you can find is a guide to forge chains in Portuguese and a book about traditional wooden bridges in Chinese, but you only speak English, French, and Spanish.

That's not even accounting for sudden changes, like your primary interface you depend on suddenly changing how it works or your query optimizer deciding to change the way it's been processing a query for 5 years and starts tanking performance that requires a redesign of a whole subsection just to get back to the same performance level. To keep the crazy house analogy that's like the hammer and nails you were using for 10 years suddenly all becoming incompatible with a certain type of wood.

Writing the code is about 50/50 art/engineering.

John Caramack is famously quoted claiming that making video games is harder than Rocket Science and he's one of the few people that's done both at a high level.
Stilachio Thrax
Duffy Swiftshadow
To keep the crazy house analogy that's like the hammer and nails you were using for 10 years suddenly all becoming incompatible with a certain type of wood.

That did actually happen a few years ago. For environmental reasons, pressure-treated wood began to be treated with a different chemical solution. Unfortunately, that chemical reacted poorly with the standard galvanized nails on the market. The result was a number of decks and other outdoor wood structures having their nails corrode very quickly and some very bad things happened. Fortunately, they discovered the problem quickly and a resolution made its way into the market quickly, but for about a year, you had to be very careful when building anything with PT wood.

tl/dr: Weird stuff happens to the simplest looking things
Virtus et Honor

Steward of Ozem's Vigil, Lord Commander of the Argyraspides Iomedais
Bringslite
Why are you guys debating points about programming software and construction work? The question here is financial due diligence and most probably overcoming skittish investor "somebodies" or delays at any point in the process of "somebodies" freeing up capital. There isn't a reliable way to estimate the positive results that you want in that field of work.

NewCorp
We expected to provide more information about the status of the capital raise today.

Unfortunately the status of the capital raise is - "we are still working on it."

We will post again by the end of the week.

For some reason, what I see when I read this (completely impression without a single fact) is that NewCorp might be just about as frustrated as some of us are that this is not locked down yet. It fits a short terse statement probably decided upon by a group of tense Game Developers who are mortified and as anxious as any players are. Probably for slightly different reasons, to be sure. Their's is really only a matter of a future of some years of steady employment while ours is a matter of how enjoyable our free time is spent(VERY IMPORTANT!).

I am willing to remain patient, despite my free time in this game still only improving slowly, thanks to a small but super dedicated group.
Virtute et Armis
-Unknown
Maxen
Bringslite
Why are you guys debating points about programming software and construction work? The question here is financial due diligence and most probably overcoming skittish investor "somebodies" or delays at any point in the process of "somebodies" freeing up capital. There isn't a reliable way to estimate the positive results that you want in that field of work.

NewCorp
We expected to provide more information about the status of the capital raise today.

Unfortunately the status of the capital raise is - "we are still working on it."

We will post again by the end of the week.

For some reason, what I see when I read this (completely impression without a single fact) is that NewCorp might be just about as frustrated as some of us are that this is not locked down yet. It fits a short terse statement probably decided upon by a group of tense Game Developers who are mortified and as anxious as any players are. Probably for slightly different reasons, to be sure. Their's is really only a matter of a future of some years of steady employment while ours is a matter of how enjoyable our free time is spent(VERY IMPORTANT!).

I am willing to remain patient, despite my free time in this game still only improving slowly, thanks to a small but super dedicated group.

+1
Too Scared to Use Real Name
Bringslite
Why are you guys debating points about programming software and construction work? The question here is financial due diligence and most probably overcoming skittish investor "somebodies" or delays at any point in the process of "somebodies" freeing up capital. There isn't a reliable way to estimate the positive results that you want in that field of work.

NewCorp
We expected to provide more information about the status of the capital raise today.

Unfortunately the status of the capital raise is - "we are still working on it."

We will post again by the end of the week.

For some reason, what I see when I read this (completely impression without a single fact) is that NewCorp might be just about as frustrated as some of us are that this is not locked down yet. It fits a short terse statement probably decided upon by a group of tense Game Developers who are mortified and as anxious as any players are. Probably for slightly different reasons, to be sure. Their's is really only a matter of a future of some years of steady employment while ours is a matter of how enjoyable our free time is spent(VERY IMPORTANT!).

I am willing to remain patient, despite my free time in this game still only improving slowly, thanks to a small but super dedicated group.

Nope, disagree, this is <explicit language>!

We the players have suffered long enough! We have sat through:

<laundry list of real and imagined grievances>

For far too long! This inadequate explanation is nothing but a cop out! You know how I know? I know because <factoids that may or may not apply to actual situation>!

So in conclusion…

<self-righteous demagoguery>
Nothing to see here, just a smurf account to hide from the consequences of my posts.
Notmyrealname
"If things continue to go well, they expect to take over the game entirely by March 1, 2016. " …
" but our own deadline of March 1st for the transfer to happen has been pushed for a month or two" … " The finish line is in sight." …. " The current target date for the acquisition is August 1, 2016." … " The revised target date for the acquisition is September 1, 2016." …. ' "we are still working on it." ' … Ok now I have a bad attitude , smile
Lisa Stevens
This is the problem with giving out dates when we are discussing these things. Usually those dates are totally outside the control of the person who wants to reveal the dates. In this case, NewCorp was super resistant to revealing any dates until they had the money signed, sealed and delivered, but I pressured them to put at least loose dates out there. Guess they were right in feeling reluctant to reveal dates because now they look bad and it is pretty much my fault for pressuring them.

We all want this deal to get done quickly, me probably more than anybody else. I have a huge vested interest in having it get done quickly, both from a business point of view and as a player. If you knew the years of my life that I lost to the anxiety over getting this deal done…. I wake up every day hoping that today is the day that I get the message that the money is in the bank, they have begun hiring, and we can get onward to the fun stuff of building the game that we all so desperately want.

But all my anxiety and wishes won't help a darn bit to speed things up. Which is why we all, especially me, need to be patient.

-Lisa
Paddy Fitzpatrick
Lisa Stevens
This is the problem with giving out dates when we are discussing these things. Usually those dates are totally outside the control of the person who wants to reveal the dates. In this case, NewCorp was super resistant to revealing any dates until they had the money signed, sealed and delivered, but I pressured them to put at least loose dates out there. Guess they were right in feeling reluctant to reveal dates because now they look bad and it is pretty much my fault for pressuring them.

We all want this deal to get done quickly, me probably more than anybody else. I have a huge vested interest in having it get done quickly, both from a business point of view and as a player. If you knew the years of my life that I lost to the anxiety over getting this deal done…. I wake up every day hoping that today is the day that I get the message that the money is in the bank, they have begun hiring, and we can get onward to the fun stuff of building the game that we all so desperately want.

But all my anxiety and wishes won't help a darn bit to speed things up. Which is why we all, especially me, need to be patient.

-Lisa

+1

Its all good smile

Any communication is better than no communication.
Paddy Fitzpatrick - Rí Ruírec of Fianna, roaming bands of noble warriors!
Member of Aragon Alliance and home of bandits, privateers, and anyone looking to get away from the shackles of law.
Find us on PFO Discord
 
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